Bangladesh to face political challenges in 2025: ICG
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The honeymoon period for Bangladesh's interim government has come to an end, with political challenges set to intensify this year as various stakeholders negotiate reforms and vie for electoral advantage, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG).
In its latest Watch List published on Thursday (January 30), Bangladesh was listed alongside countries like Moldova, Colombia, North Korea, Sudan, the Great Lakes region, Ukraine, Syria, Israel-Palestine, and Iran.
Each year, ICG publishes an "EU Watchlist" identifying areas where the European Union and its member states can bolster prospects for peace. The report, titled "Bangladesh: The Dilemmas of a Democratic Transition," highlights that the initial overwhelming support for the interim government following Sheikh Hasina's downfall has waned.
"The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus, is now under pressure to deliver concrete results," the report said. "It has struggled to manage rifts with other political forces and faces public criticism over day-to-day governance."
Increasing political tensions
The ICG report underscores that the coming year will likely see heightened political tensions. Opposition parties, student leaders, Islamist groups, and other key players are expected to jockey for electoral advantage. Strained relations with neighbouring India, which staunchly supported Hasina's regime until the end, add another layer of complexity to maintaining stability.
"Meanwhile, the interim government must also handle the responsibility of managing over a million Rohingya refugees and dealing with instability along the border with war-torn Myanmar," the report noted.
Crisis Group's Senior Consultant on Myanmar and Bangladesh, Thomas Kean, added, "The interim government is grappling with rising prices—a legacy of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's mismanagement—and it will take time before the Bangladeshi people experience tangible benefits from ongoing economic recovery efforts. Relations with India remain strained, and there is little prospect of Rohingya refugees returning to Myanmar anytime soon."
Optimism amid challenges
Despite these challenges, Kean struck an optimistic note regarding reforms. "Over the next year, Bangladesh has a rare opportunity to reshape its national political system to be more inclusive and accountable. Reform commissions have begun reporting back with numerous proposals to achieve this goal."
Kean emphasised the crucial role foreign partners play in supporting the reform process and ensuring the interim government can navigate Bangladesh towards a national election. "For the EU specifically, Bangladesh presents an opportunity to support a democratic transition and enhance its standing with an important trade partner in a geopolitically critical region."
Recommendations for the EU
The ICG highlighted several actions the EU and its member states can undertake:
1. Asset Recovery: Assist the Bangladeshi government in recovering assets acquired illegally by those close to the Hasina regime, many of which are located in Europe.
2. Diplomatic Engagement: Improve relations between Bangladesh and India by encouraging New Delhi to reconsider its stance on the AL regime and support the interim government. This shift would help mitigate growing anti-India sentiment within Bangladesh.
3. Humanitarian Support: Maintain robust support for the humanitarian response to the Rohingya refugee crisis. While international funding has declined, the EU remains a significant donor. Encourage member states to increase their contributions and resettle more refugees.
4. Refugee Policies: Work with Dhaka to adopt policies fostering refugee self-reliance and minimize the costs of delivering essential services. Support Bangladesh's efforts to convene a high-level Rohingya conference later in 2025 and encourage engagement with the Arakan Army for any repatriation plans.
Broader geopolitical implications
The ICG also noted the broader geopolitical implications, particularly the potential impact of the Trump administration's anticipated cuts to US aid budgets. "European funding becomes even more critical given the declining US assistance," the report said.