Myanmar's shadow govt loses ground as China deepens engagement
Myanmar's parallel National Unity Government (NUG) is facing growing challenges in its armed resistance against the military junta as key ethnic rebel groups engage in dialogue with the national army, spurred by China's diplomatic intervention.
NUG Acting President Duwa Lashi La recently congratulated the Arakan Army, a major ethnic armed group, for capturing a significant military headquarters in Rakhine State. In his statement, Duwa Lashi La reaffirmed the NUG's commitment to ending military rule and called for unity with ethnic armed organizations.
The NUG, formed by lawmakers from Aung San Suu Kyi's ousted civilian government, is backed by Western nations and primarily operates from exile. In 2021, it declared armed resistance against the junta and aligned with the People's Defence Forces (PDFs) to wage nationwide conflict.
However, divisions between the NUG and other resistance groups, such as the Arakan Army, have persisted. Historically declared a terrorist organization under Suu Kyi’s government, the Arakan Army has since taken control of most townships in Rakhine, a region marked by the persecution of the Rohingya minority. The United Nations has raised concerns over the Rohingya’s precarious situation under Arakan Army rule, highlighting uncertainties around governance and fundamental human rights in the area.
The NUG’s attempts to align with the Arakan Army come amidst mounting pressure from Beijing. China, seeking stability for its resource and infrastructure projects in Myanmar, has encouraged dialogue between the military and Shan State militant groups. This has undermined the NUG’s efforts to expand influence into key cities like Mandalay and Naypyidaw.
In response, Duwa Lashi La instructed senior NUG officials in November to return to Myanmar, emphasizing the need to strengthen their ground presence rather than functioning solely as a government in exile. NUG Prime Minister Mahn Winn Khaing Thann subsequently called for reduced nonessential spending and increased military investment.
Despite these measures, the Arakan Army has shown little interest in joint military action, instead reiterating its preference for resolving Myanmar's crises through political means. This reluctance underscores the NUG's struggle to unite resistance factions under a cohesive strategy.
The lack of coordination has further strained the NUG's operations. A November report by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project noted that overlapping security checkpoints and taxes imposed by various resistance groups are burdening local populations, potentially eroding public support.
Internationally, the NUG’s influence appears to be diminishing. South Korea recently declined to allow the NUG's office in Seoul to renew expired passports, signaling a shift in diplomatic attitudes.
As China's Belt and Road Initiative advances in Myanmar, joint security operations between the junta and China are expected to begin in Rakhine, a strategic region for Beijing’s plans. The Arakan Army's next moves will be crucial in determining whether the conflict escalates to involve China directly.
Western powers now face a dilemma: supporting the NUG, whose partnerships with groups like the Arakan Army raise ethical and strategic questions, or reevaluating their approach as the shadow government struggles to maintain unity and effectiveness in the face of growing domestic and international pressures.
Source: Nikkei Asia
