The risk of regional war and fatal consequences in Palestine in 2025
There remains heightened risk of a regional war in Palestine by 2025, driven by internal Palestinian fragmentation, Israeli military actions, the influence of regional powers like Iran, and global support for Palestinian liberation. A regional war would have catastrophic consequences, including widespread casualties, displacement, and destruction of infrastructure in Palestine, alongside destabilization in Israel and neighboring countries. It would also disrupt the global economy, especially energy markets, and deepen political polarization. Preventing this war requires strong diplomatic efforts, a genuine commitment to peace, and addressing the underlying issues driving the conflict to avert a global crisis, analyses Dr Hafiz Rahman
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, rooted in deep historical, political, and territorial disputes, has remained a central source of instability in the Middle East for over a century. By 2025, the risk of this conflict escalating into a regional war involving multiple nations has grown significantly. This heightened risk stems from a complex interplay of national rivalries, political fragmentation, international interventions, and the unwavering aspirations of Palestinian liberation movements. This analysis aims to explore the underlying causes of such an escalation, identify the key actors involved, and examine the potentially devastating consequences of a regional war for Palestine and the broader Middle East.
Historical context: The Seeds of Conflict
The roots of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict trace back to the early 20th century, marked by conflicting promises made by Britain to both Jews and Arabs during World War I. The establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, which Palestinians refer to as the Nakba, or "catastrophe," triggered the first Arab-Israeli war and displaced hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. Subsequent conflicts, particularly the 1967 Six-Day War—during which Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem—cemented the territorial disputes that persist today.
The ongoing Israeli occupation of the West Bank, the blockade on Gaza, and the contested status of Jerusalem have deepened divisions within Palestinian society. These divisions are primarily embodied by two factions: Fatah, aligned with the Palestinian Authority (PA) and governing the West Bank, and Hamas, which controls Gaza. Their ideological differences and conflicting strategies have fragmented Palestinian efforts toward unity and statehood.
International efforts, led by the United States and the European Union, have sought to mediate peace through agreements such as the Oslo Accords in the 1990s. However, these initiatives have faltered due to ongoing Israeli settlement expansion, recurring violence, and a lack of sustained political commitment on both sides. The 2000s witnessed a resurgence of conflict, particularly between Israeli forces and Palestinian groups in Gaza, resulting in devastating wars in 2008, 2012, and 2014. The cycle of violence continued in 2021, underscoring the fragile and volatile nature of the region's situation.
Factors contributing to the risk of regional war
Several internal and external factors elevate the likelihood of Palestine becoming the focal point of a broader regional conflict by 2025.
1. The fragmentation of Palestinian politics
The deep division between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas is a significant obstacle to achieving a unified stance on peace negotiations with Israel and resistance strategies. The PA, based in the West Bank, leans toward diplomacy and international collaboration. In contrast, Hamas, which controls Gaza, adopts a militant approach, rejecting Israel's legitimacy and advocating armed resistance to achieve Palestinian aspirations.
This fragmentation weakens Palestinian leadership, undermining effective negotiation efforts and creating opportunities for external actors to exploit divisions. As a result, the lack of unity destabilizes Palestinian society and further complicates the region’s volatile dynamics.
2. The role of regional powers
a. Support from Iran and Hezbollah
Regional actors like Iran and Hezbollah amplify the risks of escalation. Iran has consistently supported Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, through financial aid, weapons, and military training. Framing Israel as an existential threat, Iran views its backing of Palestinian resistance as both ideological and strategic.
Hezbollah, based in Lebanon and heavily supported by Iran, has maintained its alignment with Palestinian factions, particularly during confrontations with Israel. Should tensions rise in 2025, Hezbollah could launch attacks along Israel’s northern border, risking broader involvement from Lebanon and other actors.
b. Arab states’ dynamics
Countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan also influence the conflict's trajectory. While Egypt and Jordan have longstanding peace treaties with Israel, they maintain public support for the Palestinian cause. The Abraham Accords of 2020 normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations, shifting alliances but also sparking criticism from Palestinians. This normalization could backfire if public sentiment pushes these states to take stronger positions against Israel, potentially fueling a regional conflict.
c. Global actors and potential alignments
In the context of rising geopolitical tensions, external powers like Russia and China might align with Iran and Palestinian factions, countering the United States' strong support for Israel. This realignment could transform a regional conflict into a broader geopolitical standoff.
3. Israeli politics and military strategy
Israel’s shift toward a more nationalist and right-wing government under leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu has intensified its settlement policies in the West Bank and its blockade of Gaza. These measures have fueled Palestinian resentment and increased the likelihood of violent clashes.
Israeli military strategies, including targeted airstrikes and the elimination of militant leaders, have weakened Palestinian factions but also resulted in significant civilian casualties. These tactics, while effective in the short term, provoke international condemnation and heighten regional tensions. Escalation could draw other actors, such as Hezbollah or Iranian forces, into the conflict, leading to a larger-scale war.
4. Iran’s expanding influence
Iran’s involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict stems from its ideological stance and strategic goals. Its financial and military support for groups like Hamas has sustained Palestinian resistance, while its presence in Syria and growing influence near Israel’s borders exacerbate tensions.
Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian positions in Syria highlight the fragility of the situation. If Iran perceives a direct threat or seeks to retaliate for Israeli actions, it could intensify its involvement in the conflict, potentially igniting a full-scale regional war.
Potential consequences of a regional war in Palestine
An escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict into a full-scale regional war in 2025 would have catastrophic consequences for the Middle East and beyond.
1. Humanitarian crisis in Palestine
The immediate and devastating impact of a regional war would fall on Palestinian civilians, particularly in Gaza. Already suffering under a strict Israeli blockade, Gaza’s population endures dire conditions, including limited access to healthcare, electricity, and clean water. A large-scale conflict would exacerbate these hardships, leading to widespread destruction of critical infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, and homes.
The healthcare system, already stretched beyond capacity, would collapse under the weight of mass casualties. Food and water shortages would reach critical levels, intensifying the suffering of millions. The United Nations has consistently warned about the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza; a regional war would push it into an unmanageable crisis, displacing millions and creating a new wave of refugees, further destabilizing the region.
2. Loss of lives in Israel and regional destabilization
The conflict would also claim numerous lives in Israel, where major cities like Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa could face intense rocket attacks from Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iranian-backed forces in Syria. While Israel’s Iron Dome defense system has proven highly effective, the scale and coordination of a regional conflict could overwhelm its capabilities, resulting in significant civilian casualties and destruction.
The destabilizing effects would ripple across the region. Lebanon, already grappling with severe economic and political crises, could face complete collapse if Hezbollah becomes deeply involved. Syria, still fragile from years of civil war, would risk renewed conflict if Iranian proxies engage further. Countries such as Jordan and Egypt could see internal unrest, fueled by public outrage and refugee influxes, potentially threatening their governments’ stability.
3. Global economic impact
The Middle East’s pivotal role in global energy markets means a regional war could severely disrupt oil supplies, leading to skyrocketing prices and global economic instability. Key trade routes, including the Mediterranean and the Red Sea, could also become conflict zones, compounding disruptions to global supply chains.
The financial toll of military operations, coupled with increased humanitarian aid demands, would strain the budgets of nations directly involved in or supporting the conflict. The resulting economic instability would affect not only the combatants but also the fragile economies of neighboring states, worsening the region's overall socioeconomic conditions.
4. Political polarization and global division
A regional war would intensify political polarization within the Middle East and on the global stage. Arab nations that normalized relations with Israel through agreements like the Abraham Accords might face widespread domestic protests, forcing them to reconsider their positions and potentially destabilizing their leadership. Simultaneously, countries like Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah would likely deepen their support for Palestinian factions, further entrenching divisions in the region.
Internationally, the conflict would exacerbate divides between global powers. Western nations, particularly the United States and European allies, would likely bolster their support for Israel. Conversely, countries such as Russia, China, and others sympathetic to the Palestinian cause could align with regional actors opposing Israel, escalating the risk of a global geopolitical standoff.
Conclusion
The risk of a regional war involving Palestine in 2025 is alarmingly heightened by the interplay of internal Palestinian divisions, the involvement of regional powers, Israeli military actions, allegations of genocide, and Iranian influence, along with strong global support for Palestinian liberation. Such a war would have far-reaching and catastrophic consequences for Palestine, Israel, and the broader Middle East.
The humanitarian toll would be immense, with widespread casualties, massive displacement, and the destruction of critical infrastructure. The global economy, particularly energy markets, would face severe disruptions, further exacerbating worldwide instability. Politically, the conflict would deepen polarization both regionally and internationally, risking further fragmentation and escalation. In the worst-case scenario, this regional war could spiral into a global confrontation, potentially marking one of the darkest chapters in modern history.
Preventing such an outcome requires immediate and concerted diplomatic efforts, unwavering commitment to peace, and addressing the deep-rooted issues fueling the conflict. Despite the significant risks, the international community still has an opportunity to intervene, foster dialogue, and steer the region away from tragedy. Achieving peace remains a monumental challenge, but it is a necessary pursuit to avert devastating consequences for the region and the world.
The writer is a columnist and lyricist
