A plot in Maldives and India’s struggle for regional power play
India, South Asia’s largest nation, has long worked to maintain influence by supporting trusted partners such as Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh and the Congress Party in Nepal. However, analysts caution that this strategy carries significant risks.
Nilanthi Samaranayake, a researcher at the East-West Center in Washington, highlights that India’s cultivation of close, personal relationships with smaller South Asian nations often fosters resentment. “The opposition and the public remember the issues,” she notes, suggesting that such strategies can backfire in the long term.
A striking example unfolded in the Maldives. Following Mohamed Muizzu’s election as president in late 2023, relations between India and the island nation plummeted. In response, India and its intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), reportedly scrambled to devise a strategy to remove Muizzu from power.
The newly elected President of the Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, ignited tensions by pledging to expel Indian troops from the island nation while signaling a pivot towards China, India’s regional rival.
Muizzu expressed intentions to strengthen ties with Beijing, even hinting at a potential military assistance pact.
By January 2024, Indian intelligence operatives began engaging Maldivian opposition leaders to explore avenues for removing Muizzu from power, according to insiders familiar with the developments, repots the Washington Post.
A plot takes shape
An internal document, titled “Democratic Renewal Initiative,” obtained by The Washington Post, outlined a detailed strategy for impeaching Muizzu. The plan proposed bribing 40 members of parliament, including some from Muizzu’s party, along with paying off senior security officials and criminal gangs. The operation’s estimated cost of $6 million (87 million Maldivian rufiyaa) was allegedly to be sourced from India.
Despite months of covert negotiations, the conspirators failed to secure enough parliamentary votes. Indian authorities, wary of destabilising the Maldives, chose not to fund or pursue the impeachment attempt.
India vs China: A broader power struggle
The Maldivian episode underscores the ongoing battle for influence between India and China in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Both nations have leveraged loans, infrastructure projects, and political alliances to secure strategic footholds. For India, maintaining stability in neighbouring nations like the Maldives has been a cornerstone of its foreign policy.
The Maldives’ 1,200 islands, straddling vital shipping lanes, have long been of strategic interest. Indian officials worry that Chinese investments could evolve into military installations, granting Beijing significant control over the Indian Ocean.
Historical rivalries
The rivalry intensified in recent years, particularly between the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), backed by India, and the pro-China faction led by former President Abdulla Yameen and his protégé, Muizzu. During Yameen’s presidency (2013–2018), China established a strong presence, investing heavily in Maldivian infrastructure, including a $200 million bridge connecting the capital Male to its airport.
India responded by deepening its support for the MDP, led by Mohamed Nasheed, an Oxford-educated activist. Under Nasheed’s influence, India facilitated the election of his cousin-in-law Ibrahim Solih as president in 2018. Solih adopted an “India First” policy, allowing Indian military presence and securing over $1 billion in Indian financial aid.
However, Solih’s pro-India stance fueled opposition, leading to the rise of the “India Out” movement under Yameen and later Muizzu.
The 2023 elections and fallout
Muizzu’s campaign capitalised on anti-Indian sentiments, defeating Solih in the 2023 elections. His victory speech underscored his resolve to remove foreign military presence. This set the stage for heightened tensions with India.
In January 2024, discussions of Muizzu’s impeachment began. Key figures included Hussain Shaheem, an MDP lawmaker linked to India’s intelligence agency RAW, and Ahmed Easa, a long-time Indian ally. Despite efforts to rally opposition, the plot faltered due to insufficient parliamentary support and funding issues.
Meanwhile, Muizzu countered by flipping 11 opposition lawmakers with bribes, securing his position. Publicly, he escalated anti-India rhetoric, declaring, “We may be small, but that doesn’t give you the license to bully us.”
India’s response
India, known for its proactive regional policies, recalibrated its approach after Muizzu consolidated power. Recognising the Maldives’ dire economic situation, India deferred $100 million in debt payments and offered additional financial assistance. These gestures contrasted with China’s less accommodating stance, as the Maldives grappled with an $8 billion debt burden.
By October, Muizzu visited India, marking a diplomatic thaw. He acknowledged India as a “valued partner” and expressed gratitude for economic support, including a $700 million currency swap. India reaffirmed its role in the Maldives by committing to joint military projects and infrastructure development.
Lessons in regional diplomacy
The Maldives’ political upheaval reflects a broader challenge for India’s foreign policy. While India seeks to cultivate pro-India leadership across South Asia, its interventions often provoke local resentment. Analysts warn that such actions can backfire, alienating the public and strengthening opposition movements.
For Muizzu, fiscal realities have necessitated a pragmatic shift in his approach to India. Despite his initial hostility, the president has acknowledged the critical role India plays in stabilising the Maldivian economy.
As the Maldives navigates its geopolitical crossroads, India and China continue their tug-of-war for influence. For now, economic imperatives have ensured a fragile détente between India and the Maldives, but the underlying power dynamics remain as volatile as ever.
Source: Washington Post
