China’s hydropower ambition likely to impact Bangladesh

China has approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet. 

This massive project raises concerns for downstream countries like Bangladesh and India, as it could disrupt water flow, impact livelihoods, and have significant environmental consequences.

The dam, projected to generate three times more energy than the Three Gorges Dam—the current largest hydropower facility—signals Beijing’s push toward renewable energy and climate neutrality. While Chinese authorities tout the project as environmentally sustainable, experts and rights groups warn of far-reaching impacts.

For Bangladesh, the Yarlung Tsangpo’s flow is critical as it becomes the Brahmaputra River downstream, one of the country’s vital waterways. The dam’s construction could lead to reduced water availability during dry seasons or sudden floods during monsoons if water is released unpredictably. This threatens agriculture, fisheries, and the livelihoods of millions in northern Bangladesh, a region already vulnerable to climate change.

Experts have expressed apprehension over China’s potential to control the transboundary river’s flow. A 2020 Lowy Institute report highlighted that control over the rivers originating in Tibet grants China a strategic advantage over downstream countries, particularly India and Bangladesh.

In Bangladesh, where the Brahmaputra is central to irrigation and floodplain agriculture, any disruption to its natural flow could destabilise food security. Moreover, reduced sediment flow caused by upstream dams may exacerbate riverbank erosion, already a significant challenge in the region.

China has a history of exploiting Tibet’s resources under contentious circumstances. Activists claim these hydropower projects displace Tibetan communities, destroy ecosystems, and threaten cultural heritage. Earlier this year, protests against the Gangtuo hydropower project in Tibet resulted in arrests and violence.

For the Yarlung Tsangpo dam, reports suggest the displacement of local Tibetan communities and the diversion of river flow through extensive tunneling. Critics have likened the project to the Three Gorges Dam, which required the resettlement of 1.4 million people.

The planned dam site sits in a seismically active region, increasing the risk of landslides and earthquakes. Geological experts warn that large-scale construction in this narrow, steep canyon could exacerbate natural disasters, with cascading effects on river systems downstream.

India, which is also impacted by the Brahmaputra, has voiced concerns over China's dam-building spree. It is reportedly planning its own hydropower projects to counter potential disruptions caused by the Chinese dam. While Bangladesh has expressed concern over transboundary river governance, it relies heavily on diplomatic channels and multilateral agreements for resolution.

Bangladesh, as a lower riparian state, must intensify diplomatic efforts through forums like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) or the United Nations. It can advocate for stronger international regulations on transboundary river projects and demand transparency in China’s plans for the Yarlung Tsangpo.

The project could cost as much as a trillion yuan ($127b; £109.3b) according to estimates by the Chongyi Water Resources bureau.

Source: BBC