Modi's Putin hug: Is India banking on Trump's Nov triumph
When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the embrace sparked significant backlash from both the United States and Ukraine.
US officials, including National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, criticized Modi’s visit and his continued ties with Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, warned that India could not take its friendship with the US for granted. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned Modi’s visit, especially in light of a recent missile attack on a Ukrainian children’s hospital, calling it a blow to peace efforts.
The geopolitical implications of Modi’s visit raise questions about whether India miscalculated the international response and whether it jeopardized its relationship with the US analysts suggest that India's actions are influenced by historical ties with Russia, confidence in managing complex international relations, and a potential belief that former US President Donald Trump might return to power, potentially easing US pressure on India regarding its relationship with Russia.
Modi’s public endorsement of Trump, especially following an assassination attempt on Trump, underscores the Indian administration’s belief in Trump’s possible re-election. This belief is bolstered by Trump’s focus on US rivalry with China rather than Russia, which aligns with India’s own strategic interests. Christopher Clary, a political science assistant professor, posits that a second Trump administration would likely be less concerned about India’s ties with Russia.
India's long-standing relationship with Russia dates back to the Cold War, with Russia being a major supplier of defense equipment to India. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, India has significantly increased its imports of Russian crude oil, now making Russia India’s largest oil supplier. This has attracted Western criticism, alleging that these purchases fund Russia’s war efforts. India argues that buying Russian oil helps stabilize global crude prices.
Despite strengthening ties with the West, particularly the US, India maintains its strategic autonomy. However, US officials, including Ambassador Garcetti, have expressed concerns, suggesting that true strategic autonomy is not feasible during a conflict like the war in Ukraine. The timing of Modi’s visit, coinciding with Zelenskyy’s attendance at the NATO summit in Washington, DC, further complicates the optics from a US perspective.
Additionally, tensions between India and the US have been fueled by allegations of an Indian government agent plotting to assassinate Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a dual US-Canadian citizen. US prosecutors claim that an Indian man tried to hire hitmen for the job, exacerbating diplomatic strains.
Despite these issues, experts believe that the India-US relationship remains robust. Modi’s attendance at significant international forums, such as the Quad summit and potentially the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, will signal India’s balancing act between its ties with the US and Russia.
Analysts like Seema Sirohi assert that the broader strategic relationship between India and the US is too crucial to be derailed by these events. Both nations understand each other's geopolitical compulsions, suggesting that their partnership will endure beyond individual incidents or symbolic gestures like Modi’s hug with Putin.
Source: Al Jazeera
