Coronavirus: Bangkok, London and NYC among cities most at risk

Bangkok faces the greatest threat of the killer coronavirus spreading there from China, scientists have warned. 

Academics at the University of Southampton today used travel data to work out which cities around the world are most likely to see cases in the future, reports Daily Mail Online.

Los Angeles and New York place in the top 20 and London is more at risk than any other city in Europe, researchers warned. 

Paris was 27th on the list and Frankfurt was 30th, despite cases having been confirmed in France and Germany already.

Five people in the US are battling the virus but none have yet been confirmed in the UK.

The UK's Department of Health today confirmed almost 100 people have now been tested for the deadly coronavirus. 

All of them have come back as negative, but Public Health England director said she believes the virus is already in the UK.

So far, the virus has spread to some 17 countries or territories outside of mainland China but experts said they expect the global infections to continue. 

The research comes as European and American citizens stranded in Wuhan, the Chinese city at the centre of the outbreak, wait to be rescued by officials scrambling to put escape flights in motion.  

Wuhan has been under lockdown along with several other cities in the Hubei province for almost a week. 

Millions of people have been contained to try and limit the spread of the coronavirus.

However, at least five million people are expected to have left the diseased region before restrictions were put in place 'too late'. 

In the weeks leading up to the travel ban, Chinese tourists flew across the world for Lunar New Year holidays. At the same time, the number of patients struck with the virus soared. 

Wuhan coronavirus, also known as 2019-nCoV, is confirmed to have infected at least 5,400 people globally as of today. It's killed 131 in China in under a month.

Southampton's Professor Tatem and colleagues used anonymised mobile phone and IP address data and international air travel 15 days before the annual Lunar New Year and the two and a half months following. 

The analysis was based on data from previous years, and did not take into account the effect of the outbreak or the travel restrictions in Hubei province implemented on January 23. 

However, the team highlighted that a high proportion of people typically travel before in the two weeks before Luna New Year's day, on January 25.  

The report by the University's WorldPop team found Bangkok in Thailand is under the biggest threat, based on the number of air travellers predicted to arrive there from the worst-affected cities in mainland China.  

Thailand has 14 confirmed coronavirus cases - the most outside of China. The country's health minister Anutin Charnvirakul has reportedly admitted the country cannot stop the virus from spreading because there are so many Chinese travellers there.

Hong Kong, in China, is second on the list, followed by Taipei, the capital of China's Taiwan, and Seoul, in South Korea.

Sydney and Melbourne in Australia are 12th and 14th respectively, Los Angeles 15th, New York 16th, Dubai 17th and London 19th.

London typically has more than 142,000 tourists from China over the period January to mid-March.

The most at-risk countries or regions worldwide are rank Thailand 1st, followed by Japan. US is 6th, Australia 10th and the UK 17th. 

Within mainland China, the cities of Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Chongqing are all identified as high-risk by the researchers, along with the Chinese provinces of Guangdong, Zhejiang, Sichuan and Henan.

Andrew Tatem, director of WorldPop and professor of geography and environmental science, said: 'It's vital that we understand patterns of population movement, both within China and globally, in order to assess how this new virus might spread - domestically and internationally.'   

The unexpected and sudden city lockdowns were likely put in place too late, after millions had already fled the country to celebrate Lunar New Year.

Up to five million - some of which may have had symptoms - travelled at an early stage of the outbreak, before restrictions were put in place. 

Lead report author Dr Shengjie Lai of the University of Southampton said: 'The spread of the new coronavirus is a fast moving situation.

'We are closely monitoring the epidemic in order to provide further up-to-date analysis on the likely spread, including the effectiveness of the transport lockdown in Chinese cities and transmission by people returning from the Lunar New Year holiday, which has been extended to 2 February.'  

The deadly outbreak is expected to carry on for at least another six months, infecting tens of thousands of people at a minimum, according to a scientist at the University of Toronto, Canada.

Professor David Fisman, who wrote a report for the International Society for Infectious Diseases, said: 'The best case scenario, you would have something... where we go through the spring into the summer, and then it dies down.'

The outbreak started in December with less than 50 cases identified. Germany, Sri Lanka and Cambodia yesterday became the latest countries to declare cases. 

With almost 5,000 cases confirmed already in January, a further 25,000 cases may occur if the infection continues to spread at the current rate. 

A vaccine against the coronavirus is at least two months away from trial, researchers have warned. By that time, hundreds more could have died and numerous other countries been infected.