Climate change to have devastating effect in Asia: ADB

Unabated climate change would bring devastating consequences to countries in Asia and the Pacific, which could severely affect their future growth, reverse current development gains, and degrade quality of life, according to a report titled “A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific”.

Climate change also poses a significant risk to health in Asia and the Pacific, said the report jointly produced by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

Already, 3.3 million people die every year due to the harmful effects of outdoor air pollution, with China, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh being the top four countries experiencing such deaths, it said.

In addition, heat-related deaths in the region among the elderly are expected to increase by about 52,000 cases by 2050 due to climate change, according to data from the World Health Organization. Deaths related to vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue may also increase.

A business-as-usual approach to climate change could also disrupt functioning ecosystem services, prompting mass migration - mostly to urban areas - that could make cities more crowded and overwhelm available social services, it said.

More intense typhoons and tropical cyclones are expected to hit Asia and the Pacific with rising global mean temperatures. Under a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation is expected to increase by up to 50 percent over most land areas in the region, although countries like Pakistan and Afghanistan may experience a decline in rainfall by 20-50 percent.

Coastal and low-lying areas in the region will be at an increased risk of flooding. Nineteen of the 25 cities most exposed to a one-meter sea-level rise are located in the region, 7 of which are in the Philippines alone. Indonesia, however, will be the most affected country in the region by coastal flooding with approximately 5.9 million people expected to be affected every year until 2100.

In Bangladesh, overbank flows and drainage congestion can result in inundation of 20 percent-25 percent of the country’s area in a normal year, while 100-year floods are projected to flood 60 percent of the total country’s area.

During the past 20 years, floods of such magnitude or higher occurred in 3 years (1987, 1988, and 1998) and inundated more than 60 percent of the country, suggesting that the 100-flood under historical conditions may already have become more frequent.

To mitigate the impact of climate change, the report highlights the importance of implementing the commitments laid out in the Paris Agreement. These include public and private investments focused on the rapid decarbonization of the Asian economy as well as the implementation of adaptation measures to protect the region’s most vulnerable populations.

Climate mitigation and adaptation efforts should also be mainstreamed into macro-level regional development strategies and micro-level project planning in all sectors, in addition to the ongoing renewable energy and technology innovation efforts in urban infrastructure and transport.

The region has both the capacity and weight of influence to move towards sustainable development pathways, curb global emissions, and promote adaptation, the report concludes.

Source: BSS