Ramadan commodities: Market manipulation feared despite sufficient stocks
Consumer goods widely used during Ramadan are seeing a decline in international prices. Meanwhile, the interim government has waived significant customs duties and taxes on the import of these items, boosting their availability.
Despite ample stocks and a robust import pipeline, concerns about market manipulation and price hikes during Ramadan persist, necessitating stringent government monitoring.
Market outlook and govt measures
Traders expect Ramadan to commence in early March. They believe stable dollar rates are crucial to maintaining a balanced commodity market during this period.
To control prices, the government has pre-emptively exempted duties on 11 essential items, including rice, pulses, wheat, onions, edible oil, sugar, eggs, chickpeas, spices, and dates. Bangladesh Bank has also instructed reduced margins for opening Letters of Credit (LCs), easing imports for traders. Market analysts emphasize that these benefits must reach the general public.
Import trends and stock analysis
Data from Bangladesh Bank reveals an increase in the import of rice, pulses, soybean oil, chickpeas, and dates during the current fiscal year (July 1–January 5), compared to the same period last year. However, sugar and onion imports have declined. Onion prices remain stable due to the ongoing harvest season.
Sugar
Although unrefined sugar imports have dipped, refined sugar imports have surged. With global sugar prices falling, suppliers anticipate increased imports before Ramadan, ensuring adequate supply.
Current fiscal year imports (July–January): 664,176 tonnes (563,005 unrefined, 111,171 refined).
Last fiscal year imports: 864,080 tonnes (799,508 unrefined, 64,571 refined).
Annual demand for sugar stands at 2–2.2 million tonnes, with 300,000 tonnes required during Ramadan.
Edible oil
Soybean oil shortages affected consumers last month, but supply has since improved. From July to January, 1.25 million tonnes of soybean and palm oil were imported, with an additional 421,966 tonnes in the pipeline. The annual demand for edible oil is 2.3–2.4 million tonnes, with 300,000 tonnes needed for Ramadan.
Chickpeas and lentils
Chickpea imports have risen significantly, with current stocks exceeding Ramadan demand. Similarly, lentil imports have increased, ensuring adequate supply.
Chickpeas: 48,980 tonnes imported this fiscal year, compared to 17,446 tonnes last year.
Lentils: 251,561 tonnes imported this fiscal year, up from 190,087 tonnes last year.
Dates
Date imports have surged, with duty exemptions driving increased availability.
Imports (July–January): 5,883 tonnes, with 86,109 tonnes in LCs and 75,258 tonnes in the pipeline.
Last year’s imports: 9,628 tonnes, with 48,164 tonnes in LCs and 30,590 tonnes in the pipeline.
Concerns over market manipulation
Despite sufficient stocks, market analysts warn that local market manipulation could lead to price hikes during Ramadan. The Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) has called for stricter monitoring to counter potential syndicates and unethical practices.
CAB Vice President SM Nazer Hossain expressed skepticism about market stability, citing insufficient government supervision and coordination among suppliers.
Impact of dollar rates
Traders highlighted the critical role of dollar rates in market stability. A sudden spike in dollar prices could escalate import costs, affecting product prices.
Taslim Shahriar of Meghna Group noted, "If the dollar stabilises at 122–123 taka, the market will remain steady. Any sudden increase could disrupt stability."