Can fine dining anticipate financial storm?
The hospitality industry has been on a rocky road since the pandemic, with many pubs and restaurants closing their doors for good. Yet, if there was one sector thought to be resilient, it was fine dining – the epitome of luxury, where the best food meets the best surroundings. But even this elite corner of the culinary world is feeling the pinch.
Glynn Purnell's Michelin-starred restaurant in Birmingham is the latest high-profile closure, joining a growing list of fine dining casualties. In Leeds, TV chef Michael O'Hare also shut down his latest venture, despite his earlier restaurant earning the city its first Michelin star in a decade. In London, the closures continue, with restaurants like Cornerstone in Hackney and Pollen Street Social in Mayfair calling it quits.
Purnell, reflecting on his decision, called it a "sad day" and "the end of an era," but also hinted at gearing up for a new chapter. Despite his profile, he wasn’t immune to the harsh financial realities, with bookings down more than 20%. He blamed large chain restaurants, rising parking fees, the city’s clean air zone, and a declining nightlife. "Birmingham could lose its culinary reputation if it can’t sustain even two or three independent restaurants," he warned.
A barometer of the economy
Andreas Antona, who has been running the Michelin-starred Simpsons in Birmingham for over 30 years, agrees that fine dining is a bellwether for the wider economy. Though Simpsons has managed to stay afloat, Antona admits it’s not immune to the pressures. Back in the early 2000s, Antona and Purnell were building their businesses during Birmingham's culinary "renaissance," helping the city earn a reputation that rivaled London. But now, that success story is in danger of fading.
Antona says hospitality is going through the wringer, with no quick recovery in sight. "Banks aren’t lending to young, aspiring chefs," he notes, predicting that the industry will remain in the doldrums until the broader economy improves.
A nation's wellbeing reflected in fine dining
Antona's view is that fine dining mirrors the health of the nation, and right now, that reflection is grim. From Brexit and the Covid pandemic to the current cost-of-living crisis, the sector has been hit hard, especially by a shortage of skilled European workers. At Simpsons, they’ve tried to lure staff with a four-day work week, fewer hours, and better pay, but the challenges persist.
The industry, he says, has gone back to the 1970s, with diners now treating fine dining as an occasional splurge rather than a regular part of life.
The road ahead for fine dining
Across the UK, the struggle is real. Sat Bains, chef-patron of the Michelin-starred Restaurant Sat Bains in Nottingham, predicts “rocky months ahead.” However, he remains optimistic, arguing that fine dining thrives on resilience, innovation, and the ability to adapt. His restaurant, for example, introduced an à la carte menu after noticing that guests were still seeking high-quality experiences but within a more modest price point.
“Financial pressures are real,” Bains says, “but Michelin-starred restaurants are uniquely positioned to weather the storm by focusing on what they do best – providing exceptional culinary experiences.”
National challenges, local impact
Back in Birmingham, food writer Kirsty Bosley is concerned about the wider implications of closures like Purnell’s. “It’s disheartening to see one of our top restaurants go down,” she says, but she insists it doesn’t mean the city’s food scene is finished.
Tom Cullen, who runs the newsletter *I Choose Birmingham*, echoes the sentiment, noting that the entire hospitality sector, not just the luxury end, is facing pressure. “Glynn’s restaurant was very much on the luxury side,” he says, “but it’s not just the luxury names that are closing.”
Relentless cost pressures
The challenges facing fine dining are not limited to Birmingham or even the UK’s Michelin-starred elite. Kate Nicholls, CEO of UKHospitality, highlights "relentless cost pressures and an unsustainable tax burden" as key factors driving closures and stifling investment across the sector. She warns of a looming financial blow when business rates relief ends in April, which could see bills quadruple for hospitality venues.
UKHospitality is calling for a permanent, lower rate for business taxes in the sector, along with broader reforms to help venues survive. While the government has pledged to make the tax system fairer and tackle late payments, the road to recovery for fine dining – and hospitality in general – looks long and arduous.
As Chancellor Rachel Reeves has hinted, tough decisions lie ahead, and while Labour has promised to reform business rates, the industry's fate may still hang in the balance.
A question of survival
Despite the uncertainty, restaurateurs like Bains believe that fine dining will endure. Exceptional dining experiences will always draw customers, even in tough times, he says. Yet, as Antona warns, fine dining is more than just great food – it’s a reflection of the nation's economic health. And right now, that picture is not a pretty one.
The luxury dining sector, once thought to be resilient, is grappling with a future where survival may depend as much on economic recovery as on culinary creativity.
