As the United States prepares for its presidential election today, questions are swirling worldwide, including in Bangladesh, about the impact of a potential Kamala Harris or Donald Trump administration. Analysts, business leaders, and policymakers in Bangladesh are keenly weighing the implications of each candidate’s victory—both in terms of bilateral relations and key issues like immigration policy and economic cooperation.
Bangladesh-US relations: No major shifts expected
Experts suggest that, regardless of the election's outcome, Bangladesh's relationship with the United States is unlikely to experience significant shifts. Chief Adviser of Bangladesh’s interim government, Professor Muhammad Yunus, maintains good rapport with both the Democratic and Republican parties, lessening the chance of any sudden policy pressure from the next US administration.
However, broader issues like immigration policy and potential changes in remittance taxation could have major implications for Bangladesh. A Republican administration, especially if led by Trump, may tighten immigration policies further, which could impact undocumented Bangladeshis in the US Trump's close relationship with India may also create challenges for Bangladesh, should the US adopt a more India-centric approach under his leadership.
The immigration debate
Immigration is shaping up to be a central issue in this election. Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the US, M Humayun Kabir, notes that Trump has repeatedly raised immigration as a security concern, fueling negative sentiment toward migrants. Trump's potential plans include deportations and taxes on remittances, which could have serious repercussions for Bangladeshi immigrants and the broader economy.
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has promised immigration reforms aimed at stabilizing the system and offering legislative solutions. Although both candidates might adopt tougher stances on immigration, Harris’s approach is seen as less restrictive and more solution-oriented than Trump's.
Economic policies and bilateral trade
While Trump has focused on inflation control and making living in the U.S. more affordable, Harris has promised initiatives to reduce food prices, support first-time homebuyers, and raise the minimum wage. For Bangladesh, Trump’s approach could lead to shifts in trade policies, especially if he chooses to reintroduce tariffs on imports.
Professor Amena Mohsin from Dhaka University’s International Relations Department suggests that Trump’s likely alignment with India could affect Bangladesh-US relations. "If Trump comes to power, he will likely strengthen US-India ties, which may shift how the US views its relationship with Bangladesh,” she explains. In contrast, Democrats generally engage with Bangladesh on its own terms rather than through a regional lens.
Trump’s new strategy for South Asian voters
In an apparent bid for support from Indian-American voters, Trump recently condemned the persecution of minorities in Bangladesh, claiming that such incidents wouldn’t occur under his leadership. The former president’s rhetoric underscores his goal of strengthening ties with India, including his friendship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as he courts South Asian-American votes.
Prof Yunus’ standing in US politics
As an internationally respected figure, Professor Yunus is seen as a bridge between Bangladesh and the US, with goodwill from both American political parties. Former diplomat Humayun Kabir believes Yunus’s reputation is an asset for Bangladesh, providing stability to bilateral ties, regardless of who holds the White House.
The road ahead for Bangladesh
Kabir emphasises that Bangladesh’s stance on the global stage should not hinge on any single administration’s policies. “For lasting stability, Bangladesh must prioritise building a strong democratic process and uphold values that the world respects,” he asserts. “Self-reliance and national dignity are essential for Bangladesh to engage with any administration on its own terms.”
As Bangladesh monitors the unfolding US presidential race, its focus remains on fostering constructive ties, ensuring economic stability, and securing fair treatment for its expatriates in the US. With high stakes on multiple fronts, the election outcome could shape the trajectory of US-Bangladesh relations in the coming years.