Dengue cases continue to rise across Bangladesh, with the death toll increasing significantly. September saw a threefold increase in dengue infections compared to August, and experts fear that October could be even worse.
The alarming surge in infections has prompted concerns that dengue may reach its peak severity this month.
Data analysis shows that September had the highest number of dengue cases and fatalities this year. The Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) reported 80 dengue-related deaths in September, accounting for nearly 50% of the total 163 deaths recorded from January to September.
Additionally, 30,938 people have been infected with dengue in the past nine months, with 18,097 cases reported in September alone—approximately 60% of the total cases.
Hospitals struggling to cope
As the number of patients continues to climb, hospitals in Dhaka are overwhelmed. Many government hospitals are running out of beds, forcing patients to be treated on the floors.
At Dhaka Medical College (DMCH), the male dengue ward is overcrowded, with 62 patients admitted in a space meant for only 20 beds. A nurse reported that they are struggling to manage the influx.
Doctors across Dhaka hospitals confirm that most patients are local residents, though 20-25% are coming from outside the capital.
Mugda Medical College Hospital, after DMCH, has the highest influx of dengue patients, and the same situation is reported at Shaheed Suhrawardy Medical College Hospital, Sir Salimullah Medical College Hospital, and Kurmitola General Hospital.
Dr Satyajit Saha, deputy director of Mugda Medical College Hospital, said that awareness among people about dengue has improved compared to last year.
"Patients are being admitted soon after testing positive within a day or two of fever onset," he said.
He also emphasised that while a drop in platelet count is concerning, fatalities often occur due to ‘dengue shock syndrome’.
“If platelets are above 10,000 and there’s no active bleeding, there’s no need to panic,” he added.
Govt hospitals under pressure
The government has designated 18 hospitals in Dhaka for dengue treatment, where 976 patients are currently admitted, with 499 in just four major hospitals.
From January to September, 13,508 dengue patients were admitted in Dhaka, and 17,430 outside the capital. Of the total dengue cases in Dhaka, 60% were treated in four hospitals alone.
Dengue cases saw a sharp rise in September, with infection rates jumping from 14% in the first week to 24% by the last. Deaths also surged, with 11 people dying in the first week of the month, and 30 in the last.
October could be worse
Entomologists fear that October could bring an even higher number of cases. Professor Kabirul Bashar of Jahangirnagar University's Zoology Department warned, "The number of cases in September did not increase suddenly. Yet, no effective initiatives have been taken by the city corporations or local administration to control the outbreak. The situation could worsen in October."
Experts attribute the spike in cases to unusually heavy rainfall in August and September, which provided ideal conditions for mosquito breeding. Rainfall in August was 46% higher than usual, and September also saw significant rain.
Professor Bashar emphasised the need to focus on eliminating adult mosquitoes. "We still haven’t seen adequate efforts to kill flying mosquitoes. If the situation continues, October could be disastrous," he said.
Lack of dengue hotspot identification
Despite the growing severity of the outbreak, there has been no initiative to identify dengue hotspots. Typically, the DGHS conducts surveys to assess Aedes mosquito prevalence in various areas during dengue season.
However, while a pre-monsoon survey was conducted in February this year, the monsoon and post-monsoon surveys have yet to be completed. Last year, these surveys were completed by October.
Professor Bashar urged immediate action, stating that if rainfall decreases, the dengue situation could come under control within a month. He stressed the importance of identifying dengue hotspots and taking prompt, targeted measures to combat the spread.