Since 2015, no team has been more successful in making it to the knockout stages of a World Cup than New Zealand. They've made the semi-finals in each of the six white-ball events since - including three finals - and yet, the trophy cabinet is empty. But if they don't hit the ground running right away in a group that also includes co-hosts West Indies, their current campaign could very well end early.
They take the field for the first time on Friday and a challenge awaits them straightaway. Guyana has been the most spinner-friendly venue of T20 World Cup 2024 and Afghanistan are arguably the strongest spin-bowling outfit in the world. When you take into account New Zealand's less-than-ideal prep with no official warm-up games played, one wonders if they will turn up undercooked against a unit that has Rashid Khan, Mujeeb Ur Rahman, Mohammad Nabi and potentially Noor Ahmad.
However, one of the reasons why New Zealand did not play a warm-up was because many of them were at the IPL, and those franchise regulars like Glenn Phillips, Mitchell Santner and Trent Boult could make a difference. They are also boosted by the return of Finn Allen and Devon Conway from injury, and their various right-left batting options gives them various batting strategies.
New Zealand have a few spin weapons of their own too. The West Indies is Santner's favourite place to bowl in, where he averages 16.83 with an economy of 5.50. Across the last two T20 World Cups, no bowler has had a higher average release point (2.27m) than Santner. This uniqueness and his ability to vary his release speed and angle will keep all teams on their toes this World Cup.
The left-arm spin of Ravindra and the offspin of Phillips gives them flexibility, allowing them to field a strong side without Ish Sodhi in the XI. Factor in the swing of Boult, the pace of Matt Henry and Lockie Ferguson, and a string of other seam options, and New Zealand are still very much a threat. For Afghanistan's batting, that remains the biggest challenge on Friday. They'll look at the settled opening pair of Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran to put up a strong platform in pursuit of a second win in two games.
Kane Williamson and Devon Conway are two of New Zealand's top-three batters with next-to-zero game time recently. Conway missed the IPL with a finger injury that needed surgery while Williamson got only two games for Gujarat Titans. Neither have played a T20I game since January, but their experience is irreplaceable, especially if conditions are once again tricky for batting. Conway is proficient in scoring against all kinds of spin, however, Williamson could get bogged down by those who turn their stock ball away him, striking at only 106 since the T20 World Cup 2022.
Fazalhaq Farooqi showed against Uganda in Afghanistan's first game that it's not all about spinners in their team. In Providence, where this game will be played as well, he found significant deviation off the pitch and swung the ball nearly 2.5 degrees in the powerplay, more than twice that of the other bowlers. His 5 for 9 against Uganda was the fourth-best bowling figures in T20 World Cups, and Afghanistan will look for breakthroughs from him early so that the spinners could apply the squeeze sooner.
There are no injury concerns on either side. Afghanistan are likely to field the same XI while New Zealand will be considering their spin vs seam balance. Their resources are plenty: even if they keep out Mark Chapman, Michael Bracewell, Tim Southee and Sodhi, they still have eight bowling and eight batting options.
New Zealand (probable): 1 Devon Conway, 2 Finn Allen (wk), 3 Kane Williamson (capt), 4 Daryl Mitchell, 5 Mark Chapman/Rachin Ravindra, 6 Glenn Phillips, 7 James Neesham, 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Trent Boult, 10 Matt Henry, 11 Lockie Ferguson
Afghanistan (probable): 1 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 2 Ibrahim Zadran, 3 Najibullah Zadran, 4 Mohammad Nabi, 5 Gulbadin Naib, 6 Azmatullah Omarzai, 7 Rashid Khan, 8 Karim Janat, 9 Mujeeb-Ur-Rahman, 10 Naveen-ul-Haq, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi.
Source: ESPNcricinfo