A third term for India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears certain with the NDA hovering around the 300 mark. But the day belongs to the resurgent Opposition, which performed way over the modest expectations raised by exit polls.
The BJP, which was aiming for 370 seats, and set the NDA a target of 400-plus, appears to be running way behind, let down by Uttar Pradesh, which sends a whopping 80 legislators to the Lok Sabha. Around 5 pm, the BJP is ahead on 241 seats, the NDA on 296. The INDIA bloc is ahead on 228 seats, the Congress on 100.
The BJP applecart appears to have been upset by the heartland state of Uttar Pradesh, which has pushed the INDIA bloc -- Samajwadi Party and the Congress -- ahead in more than 40 of its 80 seats at 3 pm. The BJP is in mid-thirties. The BJP had swept Uttar Pradesh in 2014 and held of its ground in 2019. This time most exit polls had predicted an edge for the party.
Two of the other battleground states have also not gone the BJP's way. In Bengal, the party's big hope, it could fare worse than 2019, leading in only 11 seats at 3 pm. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress appears to have recovered much of the lost ground and is ahead in 31 seats.
Maharashtra appears to have made its disapproval clear of the political manoeuvrings in Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party. The Uddhav Thackeray faction is ahead on 11 seats to Shinde Sena's 5. The Ajit Pawar faction of NCP is ahead on just one seat and his uncle Sharad Pawar on 7. The BJP and the Congress are neck on neck with 12 and 11 seats.
The BJP's losses, as expected, are being offset from Odisha, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and to an extent, Telangana.
In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu is heading for a landslide victory, with a clear lead in 158 of 175 constituencies. Sources said the oath ceremony will be on June 9. In Odisha, the BJP is looking forward to ending the 25-year run of Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal.
The campaign has been intense and drawn out, and the mood of the voters difficult to read in this election. Three exit polls have predicted a 400-plus score for the BJP-led NDA. The rest differ only in the margin of the NDA victory -- conclusions the Opposition has trashed. Exit polls have always had mixed success in the country.
As with every election, the BJP unleashed its formidable election machinery early, and launched a star-studded campaign that focussed on development, economy and a vision for the 100-year anniversary of Independence. Backing it up were the promises met -- the scrapping of Article 370 and the construction of the Ayodhya Ram temple.
The big difference was the Opposition's offensive against the ruling coalition, a long way from the lack of cohesiveness of 2019. While the beginning was shaky and in parts, patchy -- like the Congress versus Trinamool contest in Bengal and Congress versus AAP in Punjab -- the narrative on a change in constitution and scrapping of reservation made an impact.
Voting was held for 543 Lok Sabha seats over seven phases, which ended on Saturday. The majority mark is 272.
Source: NDTV